Ten years following the UK embarked on a rushed referendum that split the nation and caused turmoil, a advisory is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering convulsions for which nobody is ready.
That is the message from two respected journalists from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a potentially tense and seismic referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction very quickly," O’Toole said. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains very unstable."
New Title Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The team have studied the political, financial and cultural reasons for any structural alteration in a book, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the issue with a series of public talks that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles everyone, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.
"We do not want a national vote on a binary, unclear proposal whose results have not been clarified because then you end up with an extraordinarily polarised community where people who have lost are not reconciled to losing and the victorious side lack clarity exactly what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would support.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say that moment is looming, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and unionists minimise the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity if and when there could be a national vote.
Lack of Serious Debate
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has obscured the absence of informed dialogue, said McBride.
"Many are for or against the idea but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to achieve it is mostly absent. A lot has gone on in academia but hardly any elected officials or advocates want to engage with the essentials. As an example, what type of nation might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, neither author supports unification or the status quo. Each composes two pieces that aim for impartiality in detailing the case for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, gathering economic and social figures, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Arguments cover flags and symbols, levies, medical care, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of loyalist violence. The objective is to educate and provoke conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," commented O’Toole. "Debate implies an acceptance of the concept that there might be reasonable perspectives on each side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where the electorate say they support unification but oppose greater financial contributions or adopting a alternative symbol to reflect unionists' British identity.
"The Irish government does need to establish what the proposal from Irish nationalism is other than just declaring: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we value you'," said the commentator.
Probability of Referendum
McBride considers a national vote in his lifetime is likely and that it might occur suddenly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a bad or a feckless secretary of state who says: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, legitimate perspectives, he said. "Somebody will win in this matter and the other side will eventually be defeated but all factions has possesses important lessons to learn from the alternative viewpoints."
Call for Broader Discussion
Westminster needed to engage with the discussion, stated the analyst. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It is a British question as much as it is an Irish matter."
