🔗 Share this article

Well. On one hand, Australia's long-running bid to host the UN climate conference next year has ended in clear failure.

It campaigned for more than three years for the privilege to host the world's biggest environmental conference and green trade fair, which would have attracted many thousands of delegates to the city of Adelaide next fall.

That's not happening. Instead, the conference known as Cop31 is moving to the resort city of Antalya, on the Mediterranean coast of Turkey.

Disappointment and Conflicting Signals

The result will be a significant disappointment to many people who had believed organizing the environmental gathering could help accelerate the country's shift from being a carbon-based economy to a clean energy leader, and bring international focus to the survival crisis facing island countries in the Pacific, who would have been joint hosts.

The process that resulted in defeat has been an unclear situation. Recently, there have been doubts that Anthony Albanese and other high-ranking officials really wanted the bid to succeed. The prime minister's language were ambiguous at best. It translated to reports in the Australian and international media saying the administration was walking away.

This differed from the communication being conveyed at the Cop30 talks in the Brazilian city, where the Australian climate change minister, the climate minister, had just stated the country was "fully committed to success".

Ambiguous backing is not a new issue for Australia's Cop31 bid. Although Bowen championed it, other high-level figures of the administration have only occasionally appeared to be interested.

DFAT, traditionally responsible for international climate negotiations, has been uninvolved and sometimes outright opposed.

Evidence suggests Albanese has viewed international climate meetings a priority. He hasn't attended one since becoming prime minister in 2022. It's uncertain, but some will wonder if additional efforts were possible to get the bid over the line.

A Different Perspective

That's one interpretation. However, another perspective to look at it.

Considering the Cop30 talks this week in Brazil – and from an international perspective – the announcement on this week may, perversely, have been the best result possible.

Bowen set out on Wednesday an novel agreement that he was working on with his Turkish counterpart, Murat Kurum. The Turkish government would be the Cop president, organizer and effective event manager, and Australia – the climate minister – would assume a role as "chief negotiator", wrangling nearly 200 countries on the matters that the countries actually turn up for – the discussions on how to together address the environmental emergency.

Additionally, there would be a increased emphasis on the Pacific region, including a lead-up event on an island nation.

Reasons for Doubt

Multiple reasons exist for scepticism. The two nations do not have a close relationship. The details of the deal had not been finalized at the moment of announcement. The whole thing could collapse before it gets started.

However, it might represent a way to recover value from what looked like an approaching car crash for the international cooperation on global warming.

The Turkish government is generally viewed in the international community as having been hellbent on creating disruption in the UN climate process. This framework is designed to operate by unanimous agreement. Typically, that means if there are several nations in the race those with weaker backing either withdraw gracefully, or a deal is quietly done to encourage them to step aside.

The Turkish bid plainly had less support than the joint Pacific proposal to organize the summit. At least 24 of the 28 nations responsible for nominating next year's venue had backed the Australian bid.

But, uniquely, Ankara declined to withdraw. The term "disruption" has been thrown around in recent days, and not just by Australians.

International Dynamics

Turkey's obstinacy can be read as a manifestation of the divided international landscape. With the US absent under the former president, there has been no dominant nation with the heft to confront the oil producers that provided the Turks with certain protection.

President Erdoğan is seen as aligned with Vladimir Putin. Several nations feared a summit obstructed from the top if his administration managed the negotiations. Germany did not want to have to organize an unprepared climate conference at the UN environmental office in Bonn, which is what would have happened under international regulations if the deadlock wasn't resolved.

A Creative Solution

A path through was necessary. The UN system is flawed and often unsettling to watch, but global cooperation has empirically made a difference in the battle with climate change. This joint approach is a innovative solution that maintains progress when it is most crucial.

Notwithstanding reasonable concerns of the Australian government over its contradictory stance for increasing fossil fuel exports, climate activists who attend international meetings see Bowen as a positive influence in the negotiations. He has been requested to co-chair discussion groups at multiple summits he has attended.

This is significant. Although some have dismissed the role of a "president of negotiations", specialists from research centers and veteran observers at environmental negotiations say it is pivotal to their success.

"Each effective summit has been shaped by a president directing proceedings who can understand, forge agreement and achieve an significant result. This occurred in Berlin in 1995, in Cancún in 2010 and Paris in 2015. The reverse happened in Copenhagen in 2009," they note. "It's the most important role at the conference except for making sure that people have food."

Unanswered Questions

Multiple unresolved issues. As an illustration, civil society is essential at environmental summits. How, if anything, can the Australian government do to stop a restriction on civil society by the host government?

Perhaps not much. But that doesn't stop this arrangement appearing as the most promising opportunity possible to have a conference that may provide benefits for the Pacific, Australia and the world. This attempt is justified.