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Just 48 hours remaining.

The English side's opening match in Australia gets under way on Friday morning.

Drawing on analysis from CricViz, we examine where the highly awaited Ashes series in years could be determined.

It's tough to score runs, isn't it?

Batsmen on each side of the Ashes rivalry might be wondering why they are bothering to show up.

Much of the pre-series discussion has focused on the apparent challenge of batting successfully, particularly for the first Test on a Perth pitch described as a "green monster".

Regarding batting in Australia, especially against fast bowling, no nation has been more difficult in which to accumulate runs over the past five years.

There are two reasons for this: pitches and cricket balls.

Taken as a collective, the surfaces prepared in Australia have recently proved to be the fastest, most bouncy and among the least predictable in the world.

Speed and inconsistent bounce are the perfect recipe for tough batting.

A long-standing narrative from England's cricketing circles describes the Kookaburra ball used in this country as a useless tool for a pace bowler.

A new version of the Kookaburra was rolled out six years ago, resulting in increased seam movement.

Seam bowling is a much bigger weapon than swing bowling in this country.

After the new ball's introduction, pace bowlers are averaging 25 runs per wicket in Australia.

Test cricket is about solving problems.

When bowlers dominate, batsmen's contributions can be the difference, and vice-versa.

Should this series be dominated by the ball, a batter could have the opportunity to be the difference between the two teams.

What's going on with the Australia seamers?

On this occasion, England have toured Australia with their fast-bowling unit largely intact, while the hosts are the ones hit by injuries.

Captain Pat Cummins will be absent for the opening match with a back issue, and Josh Hazlewood is on the sidelines for an unknown period because of a hamstring problem.

Pat Cummins, Josh Hazlewood and Mitchell Starc were first paired as a trio for the 2017-18 Ashes.

Since then, they have combined to claim 81% of the dismissals taken by Australian fast bowlers in home Tests.

Australia have seldom needed alternatives because of the success and robustness of the 'leading trio'.

On the occasions Australia have needed a back-up, Scott Boland has been sensational, taking 62 dismissals in 14 Tests at an average under 17.

In addition to Boland, other bowlers of Australia's supporting cast have performed well.

Michael Neser, Richardson and James Pattinson all average under 30 in home Tests.

The most recent occasion Australia entered a home Test without both key bowlers, and lost, was in 2012.

The past two times they have competed in Australia without the duo, they have triumphed by a total of 694 runs, featuring a victory against England in the Adelaide Test four years ago.

On the rare occasions Australia have had to go past their superstar pacemen, results have not been affected – England should pay attention.

Challenging Openings

Remember when England struggled to identify an opener to go alongside Alastair Cook?

Sir Chef went through partners faster than Watford change coaches.

Not anymore.

Since Ben Duckett and Zak Crawley were united at the top of the England order at the close of 2022, no opening pair in the world has produced more runs together.

Their success as a partnership has been a reason in Zak Crawley being backed through some inconsistent times.

The Kent man, who memorably hit the initial delivery of the previous Ashes for four, has also been recognized as having the game for Australia.

His batting average increases when the pace increases.

In comparison, Australia's top order is in a ongoing change, yet to fill the gap left by David Warner.

Following Warner's departure at the beginning of 2024, Khawaja has walked out with five different partners in 15 Tests.

Uncapped Weatherald looks set to become the sixth in 16 Tests on Friday, giving Australia an left-handed opening combo.

It is not just the opening pair that has posed issues for Australia.

Marnus Labuschagne, Australia's regular number three, was moved to open for the World Test Championship final, then left out completely.

Domestic form has earned him a recall, most likely returning to number three.

In seven Tests in the current year, Australia's top three have a combined average of 25.37.

Only the opening trios of Zimbabwe and West Indies have performed worse.

Battle of Spin

Between two closely matched sides, there is one area where Australia are unquestionably superior – spin.

Nathan Lyon of Australia, with 562 Test wickets of him, is one of the finest finger-spinners to ever play.

England's Shoaib Bashir is a moderately successful selection punt, looking short of form after a broken finger, while Will Jacks is mainly a batsman.

It would seem logical for the hosts to want Lyon at the front, but bowling spin has been incredibly hard work in Australia for the past 10 years.

In that time, slow bowlers have averaged nearly 44 in this country, albeit Lyon's record holds up well compared to the difficulties of overseas spinners.

Lyon's other issue is actually bowling enough overs.

Remember the effectiveness of fast bowling?

It is reducing Lyon's time with the ball.

In the 2017-18 Ashes here, Lyon was averaging 50 overs per Test.

Last year, in five matches against India, it was only half as many.

Tests in Australia are 25% shorter since the new Kookaburra was brought in, meaning Lyon has fewer opportunities to make an impact.

Right place, right time?

England have a depressing habit of being beaten in an overseas Ashes before Santa Claus has loaded his sleigh.

The series began in Brisbane, where they have not won since the year 1986.

In recent times, that has been followed with a floodlit Test in Adelaide Oval.

England have a single victory in seven pink-ball Tests worldwide, while Australia have triumphed in 13 out of 14.

Then comes Perth, a city England have visited on 14 occasions since 1970 and emerged victorious only one time, against a depleted Australia in 1978.

This time, the first three stops on the itinerary are the same, only in a different order and under altered conditions.

Perth hosts an series opener for the first occasion, not at the famous Waca – scene of many an England humbling – but the modern Perth Stadium.

It is still a difficult task, though one the visitors approach with no historical baggage.

Brisbane is the location for the second match, the day-night fixture.

The last time Australia played a day-night Test at the Gabba, they were stunned by West Indies.

Likewise, the Aussies are now not used to playing daytime Tests at the usual day-night venue Adelaide Oval.

Across two traditional Tests played in the Adelaide since 2014, Australia lost one, to the Indian team, in 2018.

The re-jigged schedule gives England a fresh attempt at starting an away Ashes well, though with risks.

Australia have won four out of five matches played at the new Perth ground, though the one defeat came in the latest game – against India last year.

Every Test at the new ground has been claimed by the team setting a target.

England often complicate day-night matches, when data indicate the pink cricket ball does not perform much differently from its red counterpart.

The challenge in {day-night matches|