Where Has the Excitement Gone? This Drop of the Goals from Open Play

Football match action
Wolves managed a decrease of 10 scores from open play than this point last season.

A key narrative of the Premier League season so far concerns the reduction of goals scored in open play and the way clubs are netting increasingly from set-pieces as an alternative.

Looking at scoring methods to the first 11 games the prior season, we note a drop of 39 goals in open-play and an increase of 26 from team set-pieces and penalties, resulting in 13 fewer altogether.

Examining overall statistics, shot attempts clubs are making reveal a staggering drop of 370 in open-play than this time last season.

Regardless of the big increase in set-piece goals, records show a mere two extra shots created from them outside of spot-kicks, showing the proficiency clubs are at devising strategies to net from dead-ball chances.

Goal Averages Reveal an Interesting Narrative

The 301 goals scored in 110 matches so far averages out at nearly 2.75 goals each match, if this persists for the entire campaign would be the lowest for half a decade, from five seasons ago (2.69 per game).

However, only under 200 goals scored in open play translates to 1.78 per game and is tracking to be the least for since 2009-10, from 16 years ago (1.76).

2009-10 additionally represents the only Premier League campaign to experience goals scored more frequently from non-penalty set-pieces than the current rate of 0.77 per game (0.79 per game).

Which Teams Are Most Responsible?

When it comes to goals scored from open play, Wolverhampton Wanderers have experienced by far the biggest drop, netting just four in 11 matches, a reduction of 10 than at this stage the previous campaign.

Outside of Wolverhampton, the Premier League's fall in open play goals is predominantly a London thing, with five out of the capital's seven sides netting five or more fewer goals from open play than last season.

In fairness, this is primarily due to them netting lots of goals at the start of the previous campaign as opposed to them really struggling to find the net in open play the current term.

Meanwhile Manchester City have experienced the most significant jump, with nearly all of the 23 they've scored this season coming in open play.

Set-Play Proficiency

Looking at the promoted teams with the teams that went down that they superseded. Sunderland Sunderland have netted three more goals in open play than the Saints did in matchday 11 on their way to the drop last season.

In terms of goals scored from set-plays (not counting spot-kicks), the Gunners and the Blues have experienced the biggest increase, with the two clubs compensating for the five fewer goals that they've netted in open play with the same number from dead-ball situations.

United have netted two times more goals from set-plays as they achieved in the first 11 matches last season before their coach assumed control, while the Black Cats additionally have been more successful at netting than the club they replaced they superseded.

Man City seem unaware of the trend about netting additional goals from set-pieces, since they've netted three fewer than last season, as have Forest, although this could be because of the altered approach they've attempted to adopt.

League-Wide Trends

Six sides – Arsenal, Chelsea, Fulham, Newcastle, Spurs and West Ham – are this season's top trend-setters by recording fewer goals from open play and more from set-plays, while City stand as the sole team to defy the pattern so far by performing the contrary.

It will be interesting to watch if clubs carry on to depend greatly on set-pieces as the campaign progresses or if they regain their all-round creativity and start scoring more goals in open-play also.

James Ward
James Ward

Astrophysicist and science communicator passionate about unraveling the mysteries of the universe through accessible writing.