Why Trump Achieved a Major Step in the Middle East But Faces Challenges Regarding Putin Over the Ukraine Conflict

Trump and Putin's planned talks on the near four-year war in Ukraine have been put on hold
Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin's planned negotiations on the near four-year war in the region have been postponed indefinitely.

Accounts of an upcoming American-Russian presidential summit have been overstated, it seems.

Only a few days after Donald Trump said he planned to confer with Russian President Putin in Budapest - "in approximately a fortnight" - the summit has been suspended indefinitely.

A preliminary get-together by the both countries' leading diplomats has been cancelled, as well.

"I don't want to have a wasted meeting," President Trump told the press at the White House on Tuesday afternoon. "I don't want a waste of time, so I will observe what happens."
  • Trump states he wished to avoid a 'wasted meeting' after plan for Putin talks shelved
  • Letdown in Ukraine's capital as Zelensky leaves White House without results

The on-again, off-again meeting is another twist in the president's attempts to mediate an end to war in Ukraine – a topic of renewed focus for the American leader after he orchestrated a truce and prisoner exchange deal in the Palestinian territory.

During a speech in the North African country last week to commemorate that truce deal, Trump addressed his lead diplomatic negotiator, with a fresh directive.

"We have to get Russia resolved," he said.

Nonetheless, the circumstances that aligned to make a Middle East success possible for Witkoff and his team may be challenging to duplicate in a Ukraine war that has been raging for almost several years.

Less Leverage

Per the lead negotiator, the crucial element to achieving a agreement was the Israeli government's decision to attack representatives of Hamas in Qatar. It was a move that infuriated America's Arab allies but gave the president bargaining power to compel Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu into reaching an agreement.

The US president gained from a long record of siding with the Israeli state since his initial presidency, including his decision to relocate the American embassy to Jerusalem, to change America's position on the legality of Jewish communities in the occupied territories and, more recently, his support for Israeli defense operations against the Islamic Republic.

The American leader, actually, is better regarded among the Israeli public than Netanyahu – a position that provided him with special sway over the Israeli leader.

Combine Trump's political and economic ties to key Arab players in the area, and he had a abundant diplomatic muscle to secure an deal.

In the Ukraine war, by contrast, Trump has significantly reduced leverage. In recent months, he has swung between efforts to pressure Putin and then Zelensky, all with minimal visible progress.

The US leader has threatened to enact new sanctions on Russia's oil and gas sales and to supply the Ukrainian forces with advanced missile systems. But he has also recognised that doing so could disrupt the world's financial stability and intensify the conflict.

At the same time, the US leader has criticized openly Zelensky, halting briefly intelligence-sharing with the country and suspending arms shipments to the country - then to retreat in the wake of worried European partners who caution a defeat of Ukraine could destabilise the entire region.

The president often boasts about his skill to meet and negotiate deals, but his face-to-face meetings with the Russian and Ukrainian leaders have not appeared to advance the hostilities any closer to a resolution.

Trump and Putin's meeting in August yielded no concrete results
Trump and Putin's summit in the summer yielded little tangible outcome.

The Russian president may actually be using the US leader's wish for a deal – and belief in in-person deal-making - as a means of influencing him.

In July, Putin consented to a summit in Alaska just as it seemed probable that Trump would sign off on legislative penalties backed by Senate Republicans. That legislation was afterwards put on hold.

Last week, as news emerged that the US administration was seriously contemplating shipping Tomahawk cruise missiles and Patriot anti-air batteries to Kyiv, the president of Russia called the US president who then promoted the potential summit in Hungary.

The following day, Trump hosted Ukraine's leader at the executive residence, but left empty-handed after a allegedly strained discussion.

Trump insisted that he was not being played by Putin.

"As you are aware, I've been played all my life by skilled operators, and I came out really well," he said.
Sequence of events in Ukraine diplomacy

However the president of Ukraine subsequently commented on the timeline of developments.

"As soon as the issue of long-range mobility became a less accessible for us – for our nation – the Russian side quickly became less interested in negotiations," he stated.

So, in a short period, Trump has bounced from entertaining the prospect of providing weapons to the Eastern European country to organizing a Budapest summit with Putin and privately pressuring the Ukrainian president to surrender the entire Donbas region – even territory Russian forces has been failed to capture.

He has ultimately settled on calling for a ceasefire along current battle lines – a proposal the Russian government has rejected.

On the campaign trail last year, the candidate promised that he could end the conflict in Ukraine in a matter of hours. He has subsequently discarded that commitment, saying that concluding the war is turning out harder than he anticipated.

It has been a rare acknowledgement of the limits of his authority – and the difficulty of finding a peace plan when neither side desires, or is able to, give up the fight.

James Ward
James Ward

Astrophysicist and science communicator passionate about unraveling the mysteries of the universe through accessible writing.